PIIGS warming UP

Do you remember 97/98 Asian crisis that started in Thailand ???

WIZ

CONTAGION

FROM FT:

"Markets have been pricing in greater concerns over Portugal’s debt burden as worries over Greece’s bail-out spill into other periphery Eurozone nations.

On Tuesday Portuguese 10-year bond yields rose to 4.65 per cent, up 5 basis points on the day, heading once again towards record highs of 4.77 per cent that it hit in early February.

In recent days it has also become more expensive to buy credit default protection against short-dated Portuguese government bonds rather than long-dated ones. Greece is the only other country in the Eurozone where this is also the case.This anomaly in credit markets – known as a curve inversion – is an indication of market expectations of financial stress and highlights rising concern in markets about contagion from Greece"

Do you know that Spain is the biggest holder of Portuguese debt ?

Club MED is tasting the contagion effects of 97/98 Asian crisis

WIZ

EUROPE´S MALAISE

European Soverign CDS continues to trade worse the last couple of days with all the gains from the Monday announcement of the Greece rescue package evaporated. At its recent peak, Greece 5yr CDS was trading around 440 bps which subsequently recovered to about 375 bps after details of the European aid was released. It is currently trading around 430 bps. The higher the premium, the higher the market’s perception of a default.

Separately, there appears to be some contagion with Portugal and Spain CDS both spiking on fears that these countries are next in line after Greece. Here is where they are most recently quoted:

CDS	5YR	10YR	5Y1D	5Y1W
——————	————	———-	——	——
AUSTRIA (100)	57/61	62/66	2	-2
BELGIUM (25)	59/63	64/68	2	-1
DENMARK (25)	34/38	39/43	1	1
FINLAND (25)	25/28	28/32	1	2
FRANCE (25)	52/55	57/61	3	-1
GERMANY (25)	32/34	36/39	2	1
GREECE (100)	420/440	360/390	0	-10
IRELAND (100)	149/155	152/162	0	-14
ITALY (100)	126/136	131/141	1	-3
NETHERLANDS (25)	34/38	38/43	0	0
NORWAY (25)	15/19	18/22	0	-1
PORTUGAL (100)	190/200	180/200	15	25
SPAIN (100)	146/156	140/160	10	14
SWEDEN (100)	32/36	35/39	0	-2
UK (100)	73/77	77/81	1	-3
USA (25)	35/41	39/45	0	-4

The unfortunate thing about credit problems are that they never seem to go away….unless you fix the underlying issues (balance sheet, spending, revenue) !!!

WIZ

TREASURIES: 2 superpowers

http://grantspublishing.s3.amazonaws.com/GrantsFullx.m4v

Excelent debate between Jim Grant and David Rosenberg

Enjoy

WIZ

TECHNICAL ODDS

From : Michael Panzner

In the last 90 years 11 times a +40 ROC has signaled trouble ahead. In 3 times has signaled Short Pause...

Be carefull with the ODDS !!!

WIZ